The world in 2017

If I had to sum up a prediction of 2017 in 3 words it would be “Repucussion of 2016”.

This is the article that you can bring up throughout 2017 in order to laugh at how wrong I am

Angela Merkel

angela-merkel_worr_3593942k

One of the key European moments in 2017 will be Germany. With Merkel confirming she will be running for the Christian Democrats, many fear that she will be ousted. However, due to lack oftrue competition and German wariness against far right groups, thanks to a rocky past, Merkel should win this election comfortably without any challenge from AFD (“Alternative for Deutschland”).

Elsewhere in Europe, 5 star Justice will increase their influence in Italy and they will have a referendum on the Euro and probably leave the Eurozone

Brexit

EU FORTUNE

The big thing that will topple many of my predictions is Brexit. Will it happen? Yes. Will Article 50 be triggered this year? Most likely. Will we have left by this time next year? No… How will we have left? I really don’t know. France and Germany both have elections so their leaders need to be careful to be fair as they don’t want to suffer any economic or political backlash. As a result of Nissan deciding to stay in the UK, I am just inclined to suggest that we will have a soft Brexit.

For more about Brexit scenarios see: The EU & I: After Brexit

Climate Change

Thanks to Mr Trump, this could be a bad year for environmentalists. He has said that he doesn’t believe in climate change. Further consider that his republican party also hates renewable energy, it could be a very long year for environmental fanatics.

I did previously discuss Trump and Climate Change very briefly: Setting a president: Donald Trump

Donald Trump

trump

So, I’m about to predict Mr unpredictable. Going into this year Mr President-elect is being a very sore winner and will probably start a conflict via twitter. But seriously, I reckon that the White House will dampen the use of his twitter account before an all out war with China.

Economy

As a young person, I am likely to get plenty of these wrong

  1. There will be lower growth, but probably not a reccession
  2. In his budget, Phillip Hammond will announce stimulus and likely the deficitwill increase.
  3. There will be no change in interest rates in 2016.
  4. Inflation will increase. I will predict that it will increase to around 3.5%.This will be its peak (in June).
  5. Unemployment will remain steady at 5%
  6. There will be very little/no wage growth
  7. There will be a fall in corporation tax My guess is that it will fall to 15%
  8. Because of the fall in corporation tax and potential benefits of a favourable brexit deal, therewon’t be a major fall in investment

French Elections

le-pen_3518949b

This year will see another key European Election. The French will be electing their next President. The current favourite is Republican Francois Fillon (4/7). He caused a suprise in his party primary and has promised to reclaim the French Identity. The current second favourite is Front National’s Marion Le Penn (11/4).  She is a far right candidate who is more dangerous than Nigel Farage. A win for her will be very dangerous for the future of the European Union. My gut instinct is telling me that she will cause a shock and will become the president of France.

General Elections

Earlier this year, there was debate over whether or not we would have a general election, mainly to increase May’s majority. This won’t happen during 2017 as she will see it as unneccesary  as most MPs will back article 50 and it won’t happen as the Fixed Term Parliament Act means 2/3 of MPs need to back an election and this won’t happen.

ISIS

One of my few optimistic predictions is that ISIS will be no more. As the world agrees in their fight against them, with ISIS already looking weaker than 12 months ago, they will most likely cease to exist over the next 12 months

Jeremy Corbyn

Jez

Nothing will happen to Jeremy Corbyn. I’ve previously made it clear what I think about him, but after a failed vote of no confidence, it’s clear that Jeremy Corbyn isn’t going anywhere soon. Inevitably, he’ll run for 2020, fail dreadfully and finally be voted out of the Labour Party leadership.

See more: Dear Mr. Corbyn

See more: What next for the labour party?

Liberalism vs Authoritarianism

Throughout this year we have seen the decline of the economic left vs right. There has been an increase in identity politics. The result of this is that people will consider their social attitudes as opposed to their economic attitudes when choosing their political alleigances.

Mark Carney

Carney

He has said that he will leave as head of Bank Of England in June 2019. That is basically enough time to see through Brexit. If we end up leaving the EU within 6 months of article 50, very unlikely, then there is a slight chance that Carney may go this year. However, I doubt he will. I also predict there won’t be any change in the interest rates within the next 12 months.

NUS

Inevitably the group will keep Malia Bouattia as our Great Student Overlord. Long live Queen Malia

Educational26

Protectionism

This could be a big problem for the global economy. Should Trump begin a trade war with China, EU & UK, it could mean high tariffs around the world. This probably won’t affect the UK directly, but indirectly, it would slowdown trade and lead to a global recession. I don’t think there will be an increase in tariffs, but more likely a fall in US corporation tax rates, which would have less of a detrimental effects than tariffs and quotas.

Tories

BT

Divided they fall. Having had the Eurosceptics calmed, May has a tough job of satisfying all of her MPs with a brexit deal. The best hope she has of getting a deal through parliament is soft brexit, however that may alienate her from some voters, not that there is an opposition at the moment. The big concern for her is that she may lose the support of some MPs.  However, despite this concern,I doubt it will have significance as she will most likely rule the party with an iron fist.

UKIP

nuttall

Job done. With Paul Nuttall (The bald guy who isn’t Farage) in charge, they will fade in to oblivion as they will be pointless.

Vladimir Putin

putin

This man should have been Times Person Of The Year. Hehas had a huge year. Threre will be Russian hacking in the Russian elections, he will have more a presence with the support of Trump and his work in Syria has given him more power in the regions diplomacy. He won’t test Nato, but will certainly make the situation in Europe more difficult.

Final Words:

Firstly, thank you for reading the rubbish that I post. I kicked off this blog around the time of the referendum and it has kept going since. Sadly, I didn’t get any results go my way, but we are at a fascinating time. Next year we will see the result of the decisions of this year, and I will be writing throughout.

There is one last thought that I would like to leave you with:

People voted for some pretty tragic things to make this year a bad year for you. Just consider how many tragic years they must ave had to vote in such a way.

-SwiftEconomist

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One thought on “The world in 2017

  1. Pingback: Election Fever

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