This Saturday, Jeremy Corbyn was elected as leader of the Labour Party. Many people saw this as a negative, and as all three of my blog’s avid readers could imply from an earlier post, I was among them. None the less, it only seems right that, now I have my wi-fi back, that I write some thoughts about the labour party and British politics.
Don’t worry Corbynites, I have tried to keep this blog post balanced.
The Likely Scenario:
The probability of Mr. Corbyn becoming prime minister is very small. I know he won over many labour members, however that isn’t whats important. What labour really need to do is win over the swing voters. The moderates in these seats decide the elections and not the demographic of mostly students who follow corbyn (who, let’s face it, don’t vote anyway). Corbyn will not appeal to those in swing seats and as a result would be likely to lose to the Conservatives by a fair majority.
What is truly aggravating about the party is that they couldn’t see the problem that lost them the last general election. It wasn’t that Ed Milliband was to central, it was that he was an absolutely awful leader who couldn’t inspire confidence in anyone. So what the party have done is choose to go further to the left and chose an equally as inadequate, if not worse leader.
Sadly, Labour seem nothing more than a student protest movement. If Corbyn wants to do well, he needs to shake this image off him and his party. Although this is easier said than done.
I want labour to do well. Any person in politics, no matter what party should want them to do well. A competent, strong opposition is what is required in order to keep a government in check. If a majority gets too big, it can lead to dangerous consequences through unobjected policy (not looking at anyone Mr. Blair). A large majority doesn’t allow for good governance or accountability.
Sadly, by the looks of the polls, Labour are in their worst position for decades and I’m not confident that will change. Corbyn will be running for Prime Minister in 2020. No amounts of Vote Of No Confidences will change that. I can only hope that any damage done isn’t too permanent as there is a very real worry that we may become a one party state and there will not be another labour government for decades.
It may not be over:
Nigel Farage was successful. Donald Trump may be successful. Marine Le Penn is becoming successful. All of these people have defied massive odds, so there is a chance that Corbyn could too. A reluctant person to remain in Europe, this could be a way for him to appeal to those in Labour heartlands who don’t really like Europe. With UKIP fading into meaninglessness and obscurity, he could become the new person to take down the establishment.
The poll numbers were worrying, however part of this may be down to the fact that the party was divided. Nobody would elect a divided party, so there is a chance that there will be short run improvements in the polls for labour.
The Conservatives could also be divided. This is an oppotunity that Labour need to make the most of. With only a small majority, they are in a fragile state, and it’s fair to say that many will be unhappy with how Theresa May negotiates brexit, no matter how she does it. If this causes big rifts, especially pre-election, a united strong Labour Party could really push through and snatch the election.
I am worried that we will become a one party state and that a party would win with such a large majority. I didn’t back Corbyn and still wouldn’t now. The Labour Party have problems to deal with and are unlikely to make a strong comeback, however should they be able to stand firm, a solid opposition with different believes to the party in power would be interesting and good for British politics.